A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
