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PHEVs emit nearly 5x more global warming emissions than official data show, as per a new analysis.

Growing Discrepancy In Official and Real-World Emissions

Statistics reveals that PHEVs emit just one-fifth lower CO₂ than traditional petrol and diesel cars, according to research conducted by a non-profit organization. This contrasts sharply with lab estimates, which assumed a 75% reduction in emissions.

Researchers studied information from onboard fuel consumption monitors of eight hundred thousand vehicles sold in Europe between 2021 and 2023. They found that real-world CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times higher than official estimates, increased from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Real-world CO2 output are rising, while lab-reported emissions are decreasing,” said a senior analyst participating in the study. “That discrepancy is widening and poses a significant issue. Consequently, PHEVs pollute almost as much as petrol vehicles.”

Primary Reasons Behind the Emissions Gap

Analysts linked most of the difference to inflated estimates of the “electric driving share” – the percentage of kilometers driven in electric power relative to total distance. The team found that only a quarter of travel was done in EV mode, whereas lab assumptions assumed 84%.

Even, when operating in EV mode, pollution amounts were well above official projections. That occurred because EV motors were insufficiently powerful enough to operate independently, resulting to combustion motors using fossil fuels for nearly one-third of the travel covered in EV mode.

Regulatory and Financial Consequences

Based on estimates, the underestimation of PHEV CO2 output enabled several large automaker groups to escape over €5bn in fines between 2021 and 2023, by falsely easing adherence with EU average fleet CO₂ standards.

Additionally, drivers of PHEVs could pay about €500 extra per year in operating expenses than would be assumed under lab conditions.

“The strong statements that automakers like to make about their PHEV cars are clearly way off the mark,” commented a automotive analyst. “Consumers are being misled into believing that by purchasing a PHEV, they are helping the planet and saving money. In reality, PHEVs are little better than standard petrol and diesel cars in terms of fuel consumption, CO₂ emissions, and running expenses.”

Policy Discussion and Industry Lobbying

Plug-in hybrid vehicles have recently been brought back into policy debates as automakers have pressed the EU to relax CO₂ targets. A planned ban on sales of new internal combustion vehicles in 2035 has faced intense pressure from the automotive sector and resistance from EU countries with significant car manufacturing.

Some high-level politicians have suggested plug-in hybrids as a potential “compromise” solution to include in the regulation.

One independent energy policy specialist, who was not involved with the study, called the report a “very useful addition” after years in which segments of the automotive industry claimed there was too little information to properly assess real-world CO2 output.

“These findings show, without question, that the gap between official and real-world PHEV energy use and CO₂ output is much, much greater than for petrol or conventional cars,” the expert stated. “All policy adjustments concerning PHEVs should be made with utmost caution and in the light of that data.”