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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.