Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in the region have been put on hold.

Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House empty-handed

The frequently changing meeting is another development in Trump's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get Russia done," he declared.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president gained from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, including his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.

Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in the summer produced little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.

During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.

The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.

So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

Kevin Watson
Kevin Watson

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